Norwegian special envoy Jon Hanssen-Bauer will visit Sri Lanka this week, but Oslo has decided not to take any more peace initiatives following a virtual state of war in the island nation. Hanssen-Bauer will be in Colombo shortly after President Mahinda Rajapaksa returns from New Delhi and shall also travel to the northern town of Kilinochchi to meet leaders of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Informed sources told the agency that the visit was to tell the two protagonists that while Norway would remain in touch with them directly and indirectly, it has no further intention of launching any peace move unless they genuinely decide to shake hands. "Colombo and LTTE are not ready for any peace process," the source said dismissively, reflecting the deepening despondency in the international community overseeing Sri Lanka.

"The idea of making peace in the middle and let it spread to the wings of the spectrum makes sense in Norwegian domestic politics, maybe excluding only five to 10%. If you exclude more than 50%, the failure is imminent. The process did not die, it was still born.

But I would like to add a point: Please don’t see this as something particularly Norwegian. The focus on two parties trying to make a deal is a part of an unfortunate diplomatic tradition. The desire to broker a deal is so high, for all kinds of reasons, that third parties are easily blackmailed: "If you invite those people forget about any facilitation."

Do not always go for the top people. Try it out at lower levels. Grassroots people are often much more reasonable. The leaders may be leaders precisely because they have very strong views. But they may also change them to keep the leadership position, being unpredictable. Let 1000 local dialogues among people blossom, listen carefully for ideas, let the GNIP—Gross National Idea Product—grow.

This is what happened in Northern Ireland with the help of women and clergy from both sides. The "silent majority", 85% unnoticed by explosion-hungry media, was mobilized. But they also had important political talents on the Sinn Fein side. Something is personality. And something in Sri Lanka is politicking, not politics...

Yes, there is talk about a winnable war—like from the South African and the Israeli apartheid government. That approach did not succeed in the former, nor will it in the latter. In Sri Lanka, both parties have soldiers in uniform pitted against each other in war. The Government of Sri Lanka has, in addition, state terrorism, bombing, killing civilians and the LTTE has terrorism. The LTTE also has a guerilla capacity. It looks to me as if both have the capacity to deny the other victory.

But imagine it happens: Killinochchi is flattened, Mr P is dead, LTTE dissolved. Will the Tamil dream of a Tamil Eelam die? Of course not. It will be revived, and new cycles of violence will occur. And probably new CFAs. And possibly the same mistake, confusing ceasefire with peace, using it as a sleeping pillow to do nothing.." more

Statement by LTTE 22 February 2007
Statement by Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission, 22 February 2007
Jathika Hela Urumaya "Ceasefire Agreement Already Dead" 22 February 2007
Buddhist Monks demand end of ceasefire with LTTE, 22 February 2007

Sri Lanka’s ongoing military campaign leaves Tamils with no option but to seek self-determination and self-rule, the country’s largest Tamil party said Friday. In a statement to mark the fifth anniversary of the Ceasefire Agreement between the LTTE and the Sri Lankan government, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) called on the international community to recognise the Tamil struggle pointing out that in the past five years, “the Sri Lankan government has utterly failed to alleviate the sufferings of the Tamil people. Neither has it contributed meaningfully to a lasting solution to the national conflict.”